Rafael Rodrigues da Costa*
Nos últimos anos, o setor petrolífero tem passado por importantes mudanças regulatórias no país. A pretexto de uma maior liberalização da economia brasileira e atração de investimentos estrangeiros, essas mudanças têm sido responsáveis por favorecer e incentivar a entrada de empresas privadas e internacionais em todos os níveis da cadeia produtiva de óleo e gás. Essa diretriz altera significativamente o marco regulatório definido ao longo dos primeiros quinze anos do século XXI, quando a Petrobras teve uma condição favorável para atuar na indústria de petróleo.
Tais reformas tiveram início a partir do segundo governo Dilma Rousseff (PT), mas foram intensificadas durante o governo Michel Temer (MDB). Em apenas dois anos, o governo emedebista conseguiu aprovar (i) a retirada da cláusula de obrigatoriedade de participação da Petrobras nos campos do pré-sal; (ii) a aceleração do cronograma de leilões de petróleo no pré e pós-sal; (iii) flexibilização da exigência de conteúdo nacional em máquinas e equipamentos no segmento de exploração e produção de petróleo; e (iv) ampliação do Repetro (regime especial que permite a desoneração de impostos para a importação de equipamentos para a produção petroleira).
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Essas iniciativas representam uma significativa mudança de rota quando comparadas as estratégias adotadas pelo governo brasileiro desde 2010, quando a descoberta do pré-sal foi vista pelos entes federativos como uma oportunidade de desenvolver tanto a Petrobras como um importante player no mercado de energia mundial bem como uma cadeia interna de fornecedores, gerando assim ao país uma extraordinária fonte de renda petrolífera como também o próprio desenvolvimento do parque industrial brasileiro.
Com as eleições presidenciais de 2018, o debate sobre o futuro do petróleo brasileiro ficou dividido entre os dois candidatos principais – Fernando Haddad (PT) e Jair Bolsonaro. Em linhas gerais, pode-se dizer que enquanto o projeto petista visava reestabelecer a estratégia de priorizar o protagonismo em torno da Petrobras e da indústria brasileira na exploração do petróleo no país, Bolsonaro anunciava em seu plano de governo a intenção de não apenas manter a política liberal do governo Temer, como também de aprofundá-la.
Partindo do diagnóstico de que desde a descoberta do pré-sal “a regulação do petróleo foi orientada pelo estatismo, gerando ineficiências” e de que “a exigência de conteúdo local reduz a produtividade e a eficiência, além de ter gerado corrupção”, o plano de governo bolsonarista elencou como prioridade a tarefa de “remover gradualmente as exigências de conteúdo local”, além de anunciar o interesse em “aumentar a competição no setor de óleo e gás” no país[1].
Ou seja, apropriando-se do discurso de “combate à corrupção” e associando-o a uma agenda econômica que, na prática, atua em favor dos interesses de importadores e de grandes fornecedores estrangeiros, Bolsonaro chega ao Planalto comprometido com a manutenção do calendário de leilões nas áreas de exploração, além do estímulo à venda dos campos maduros e liberalizações nas exigências de conteúdo local, o que ensejaram na realização dos dois leilões que ocorreram no governo Bolsonaro, a 16ª Rodada de Concessão e a 6ª Rodada de Partilha de Produção.
Além disso, o governo Bolsonaro leiloou sob o regime de partilha o volume excedente de óleo encontrado nas reservas da “cessão onerosa” – um modelo especial de regulação no qual a União cedeu a Petrobras o direito de atividades exploratórias em determinados blocos do pré-sal, estimados em 5 bilhões de barris. Ao contrário do arranjo original no qual a Petrobras ficou responsável por explorar os campos da Cessão Onerosa, com esse novo leilão, o governo buscou atrair outras operadoras para explorar umas das regiões mais promissoras da área do pré-sal.
Dessa forma, a grande novidade do “mega leilão da cessão onerosa” foi leiloar um volume de reservas onde não há praticamente risco exploratório (apenas risco de desenvolvimento dos campos), ao contrário dos demais leilões realizados pela ANP. De acordo com o Ministro de Minas e Energia, Bento Albuquerque, novos leilões nessa região serão realizados com a mesma modalidade para junho de 2021.
O próximo passo do governo agora é modificar a regulação do modelo de partilha de produção. Criado em 2010, esse tipo de regulação especial para as áreas do pré-sal garantiu que o Estado brasileiro transferisse às empresas apenas o direito de conduzir as atividades de exploração e produção dos hidrocarbonetos, sem perder o direito de propriedade sobre eles. Assim, diferentemente do que ocorre no modelo de concessão – no qual as empresas vencedoras dos leilões passam a ter o direito de propriedade do petróleo e gás natural extraídos mediante o pagamento das taxações e participações governamentais – o modelo de partilha cede a empresa vencedora o direito de explorar hidrocarbonetos do Estado que, por sua vez, estipula em contrato uma fração excedente do petróleo bruto para ele mesma, sendo gerido por intermédio da empresa pública PPSA (Pré-Sal Brasileiro S/A).
Crítico do sistema de partilha[2]e em linha com as promessas da campanha eleitoral, o Ministro da Economia, Paulo Guedes, dá sinais de que pretende simplificar o atual “regime misto” em direção ao sistema único do modelo de concessão nos próximos leilões, inclusive com possibilidade de privatizar a PPSA como estratégias para a retomada do crescimento econômico pós-pandemia.
Ou seja, em que pesem todas as turbulências que o mundo em geral e o Brasil em específico tem enfrentado, o governo Bolsonaro permanece obstinado em sua agenda privatista de retirar o Estado dos eixos de controle sobre as reservas de petróleo brasileiras para privilegiar as empresas privadas e internacionais.
Desonerações fiscais para importação, o fim das políticas de conteúdo local, as mudanças no regime de partilha, todos esses movimentos apresentam uma única direção estratégica: a retirada do Estado como indutor do desenvolvimento industrial brasileiro em detrimento de importadores e de agentes estrangeiros em suas próprias cadeias de valor, gerando receitas e empregos em seus países de origem, enquanto o Brasil corre o risco de perder uma das maiores janelas de oportunidade de toda a sua história.
*Rafael Rodrigues da Costa é sociólogo, pesquisador do Instituto de Estudos Estratégicos de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (Ineep) e pesquisador visitante da Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA).
[1] O plano de governo de Bolsonaro protocolado no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) na eleição de 2018.
[2] “Cessão onerosa: Guedes chama resultado de extraordinário, mas afirma que regime de partilha é ruim”.
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